Telling Lies

Since the May 5th General Election, there has been a lot of crap being dished out and called “analysis”. However, with this piece titled Metos Kejayaan UMNO, newly elected MP for Raub, Mohd Ariff Sabri, has taken the art of bullshitting to a whole new level. It is filled with spin, incredible leaps of logic and outright lies. In fact, almost every figure he passes off as fact is a fabrication. Let’s go through some of his gems:

Semua orang tahu UMNO bertanding dalam kerusi yang jumlah pengundi dalam kawasan nya jauh lebih kecil berbanding jumlah pengundi dalam kawasan parti lawan. Jika PAS bertanding dalam kawasan dimana jumlah pengundi secara purata berjumlah 77,000, UMNO bertanding dalam kawasan dimana jumlah pengundi secara purata adalah 36,000.
This is a lie, pure and simple. If you count the number of people who voted in seats contested by UMNO, the average per seat is approximately 51,000. The average for PAS is only 49,000

Demikian juga dengan PKR. PKR bertanding dalam kawasan dimana jumlah pengundi nya secara purata ialah 75,000.
Another lie. The average number of people who voted in areas contested by PKR is also approximately 49,000

Dalam tahun 2008, umno telah mendapat 2 juta undi orang melayu. Ketika itu jumlah pengundi melayu ialah 5.7juta. Lebih ramai orang melayu sejak 2008 sudah pun menolak umno. Erti nya, ketika itu umno hanya memperolehi 35% dari undi orang melayu.
I don’t know whether he’s lying or just being stupid. Did these 5.7 million Malays all live in seats in which UMNO contested? UMNO got 0 votes in, for example Pandan, simply because Pandan was contested by MCA. Does that mean there were no UMNO supporters there? Surely, for an accurate comparison, the total cannot include seats that UMNO did not contest.

Berapa jumlah pengundi Melayu kali ini? Jika 70% dari 11.2 juta pengundi dalam PRU13 ialah orang Melayu, maka jumlah pengundi Melayu ialah 7.8 juta.
Yet another lie. Instead of plucking a random number out of his ass, why couldn’t he simply have referred to the number given by the EC? The percentage of Malays out of the 13.3 million voters registered for GE13 was only 53%. Even if all of them went out to vote, that would only be 7 million. There is no reason to think that Malays were more likely to go out to vote than other races. If the turnout among Malays were the same as everyone else (85%), then the number would fall further to 6 million.

Sekali lagi buatlah perhitungan. Jumlah pengundi Melayu ialah 7.8 juta. UMNO hanya dapat 2.7 juta pengundi Melayu. Ertinya, 5 juta orang Melayu tidak menyokong UMNO dalam PRU13.
Again, only about 6 million Malays voted. UMNO only contested 119 out of 222 seats. So, it was simply impossible for many Malays to vote for UMNO even if they wanted to. MCA, MIC and Gerakan got 899,420, 291,814 and 153,081 votes respectively. How many of these more than 1.3 million voters were Malays who would have voted for UMNO if UMNO had placed a candidate instead?

Proper analysis has been done by others using sound statistical methods instead of this voodoo that Ariff Sabri employs. I suggest you take a look at this post by Sdr DAH Ikhwan who used regression analysis of data from individual seats to estimate how the different races voted. What he found was that support for BN among the Malays in Peninsular Malaysia was about 63%.

Edit 10am, 6/6/2013:

I’ve updated my figures for the average number of voters per seat for each of the parties as the original figures didn’t include independents and spoilt votes. They’ve changed slightly with UMNO up to 51k from 50k, PAS to 49k from 47k and PKR to 49k also from 47k. Details of how these numbers are derived are as follows:

Number of seats contested 119 97 73
Number of registered voters in seats 7058181 5591580 4167109
Number of votes cast in seats 6063772 4720281 3589138
Average registered voters per seat 59312 57645 57084
Average votes cast per seat 50956 48663 49166



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