In Reply to hooleah

I recently commented on an article in The Malaysian Insider pointing out that there never was an urban Malay swing for PR in GE 13. You can find the article and my comment (if it hasn’t been removed) here.

In response, another reader using the name hooleah asked me to provide references and called my numbers fictitious. So I wrote a long reply detailing my reasoning and posted it.

For whatever reason, TMI declined to publish it. So I’m posting it verbatim here. I’ll let you decide if there’s anything wrong with it that warrants it to be censored.

For a start, you can go here: http://dahalmi.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/pilihan-raya-umum-ke-13-tahun-2013-analisis-undi-dan-kerusi-mengikut-kaum/
The numbers are a bit different from mine because he combines Selangor with KL and Penang mainland with the island, so there are some non-urban seats mixed in. But the conclusion is the same – even in the urbanised states most of the Malays supported BN.

The author is Malay so you may accuse him of being “UMNO funded” and not believe him. In which case you can just do the math yourself. You can use linear regression and it is not difficult. Here is a site that can do the calculation for you: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/linear-regression/. Just fill in the data – in this case the independent (x) and dependent (y) variables are:
x – percentage of Chinese registered voters in each seat
y – percentage of votes won by PR in each seat

Below is the data for the 11 KL parliamentary seats starting from P114 Kepong. You can look this up yourself if you don’t believe me.
x,y
90.31,81.65
40.77,57.76
39.76,54.42
51.77,64.61
33.23,48.04
23.7,48.58
74.64,72.70
27.04,50.79
89.69,85.58
84.14,81.22
39.47,56.39

Just copy and paste the numbers into the form and click “SUBMIT DATA”. It’ll give you a regression line equation and a chart that shows how well it matches the data. You can then enter a value for x = 100 to estimate the percentage of the Chinese who voted PR, and x = 0 for the percentage of non-Chinese who voted PR. If you click on “correlation coefficient” it’ll tell you how strong the relationship is between the 2 variables. In this case, it is 0.988 which is very strong and indicates this is a very good model for explaining the results for KL. Do the same for Penang island and you’ll get the same number I quoted.

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One Response to “In Reply to hooleah”

  1. Tun Dr Ismail: Sedition Act is also to protect the MCA | Helen Ang Says:

    […] “If you click on ‘correlation coefficient’, it’ll tell you how strong the relationship is between the two variables. In this case, it is 0.988 which is very strong and indicates this is a very good model for explaining the results for KL. Do the same for Penang island …” – blogger Oik […]

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